[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N60W TO 12N60W...MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS WELL NOTICED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SSMI TPW INDICATES
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 55W-65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N17W TO 08N21W TO 08N29W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 09N45W TO 09N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 16N41W TO 10N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 19W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ITS
AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF REACHING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR
30N88W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 26N89W TO 21N91W.
AT THIS LAST POINT..THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES
TO 18N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 18N-
24N BETWEEN 90W-96W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT A GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING N OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHILE A LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS S OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO WEAKEN AND STALL AS IT
REACHES FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETROGRADE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF AND DISSIPATE BY MID-WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 77W. TO THE E OF
THIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HAITI NEAR 16N75W
WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NE OVER HISPANIOLA AND SW TO OVER
NICARAGUA. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN
ENHANCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY E OF
80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN N
OF PANAMA ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-80W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN INCREASING THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HAITI EXTENDING ITS TROUGH
ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE CARIBBEAN. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS E
OF THIS LOW WHICH IS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED NEAR 31N72W
WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB SURFACE
HIGH NEAR 32N66W...A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N56W...AND ANOTHER 1023
MB HIGH NEAR 31N32W. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS REFLECTED AT
THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N67W TO 21N69W WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E
CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. EXPECT
A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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