[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W FROM 10N-19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 55W-59W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W TO 10N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 8N21W TO 9N39W THEN RESUMES NEAR 8N41W TO 9N59W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING ALONG 39W/40W FROM
7N-13N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM
N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 4N-
10N BETWEEN 18W-38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
FLORIDA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND FORT MYERS ALONG 23N87W TO OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 17N94W. A SHARP
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO E TEXAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE W OF
LINE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST TO LAGUNA MADRE MEXICO WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE W OF THIS LINE. A SHALLOW
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TO THE E BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA
THEN BECOMES A WARM FRONT ACROSS EXTREME S ALABAMA INTO THE GULF
NEAR THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
1009 MB LOW ALONG 23N91W OVER S MEXICO TO NEAR 18N92W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM
27N89W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR PENSACOLA AND IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM MOBILE ALABAMA ALONG 24N90W TO MEXICO
NEAR 19N95W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL AS IT
REACHES FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY THIS EVENING THEN WILL RETROGRADE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF LINE FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS. AN UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED S OF HAITI NEAR 16N75W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NE OVER HISPANIOLA AND SW TO OVER NICARAGUA. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N69W TO OVER HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 18N71W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-20N E OF 82W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 11N E OF 78W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BY TUE NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF
SW HAITI. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL SHIFT W THROUGH EARLY WED
WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ISLAND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE ISLAND TODAY AND THEN THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 30N73W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E
BEYOND 32N58W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH W OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N40W ALONG 26N52W TO 25N62W SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO 27N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS FROM 24N69W TO OVER HISPANIOLA TO NEAR
18N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 65W-74W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 31N29W. THE W
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETRACT SE ON TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL STALL EARLY WED
THEN DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE BY THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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