[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SW GULF W OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 21N BETWEEN 94.5W-97W. THIS
WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 02/0600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W FROM 10N-19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-15N
BETWEEN 51W-54W AND FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 53W-57W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N24W AND
CONTINUES TO 6N37W THEN RESUMES NEAR 6N39W TO 5N51W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N22W TO 5N23W WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 11N38W TO 5N38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 17W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE HAS FINALLY MOVED E INTO THE W ATLC
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 25N85W
THEN SW TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SHARP
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVER OKLAHOMA AND E TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND W LOUISIANA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE W OF LINE FROM VERMILION BAY
LOUISIANA TO LAGUNA MADRE MEXICO. A SHALLOW FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM A
1015 MB LOW OVER S GEORGIA ACROSS PENSACOLA FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 29N92W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
1009 MB LOW ALONG 23N93W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN
75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 90W-97W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FAR W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE E
BAY OF CAMPECHE AT SUNRISE ON MON. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUNRISE
TUE BEFORE DRIFTING W ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON TUE NIGHT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF LINE FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS. AN UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED S OF HAITI NEAR 16N74W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NE OVER HISPANIOLA AND SW TO OVER S NICARAGUA. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 70W FROM 14N-21N. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 13N BETWEEN
65W-80W INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES AND JAMAICA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 80W TO
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SW
PENINSULA OF HAITI TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT W
THROUGH EARLY WED WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 30N74W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E
ACROSS BERMUDA AND SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH
32N43W ALONG 26N57W TO 25N62W SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO 24N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 65W-70W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH S-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 32N31W. THE W
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO
FORT PIERCE FLORIDA ON MON THEN RETRACT SE ON TUE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM
31N79W TO 29N81W EARLY WED THEN DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE BY THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net