[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 30N87W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 28N89W...SOUTHWARD TO 18N94.5W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET FROM 21N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 95W AND 97W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N55W 15N56W 10N57W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 49W AND 57W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W TO 11N20W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 11N20W TO 08N29W 08N45W TO 10N61W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 03N TO
09N FROM 35W EASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN
35W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STILL FROM 08N TO 13N
BETWEEN 56W AND 61W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W EASTWARD. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PART OF AN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...
AND THE PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W TO
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N89W. THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N93W...AND INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG WAS FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 89W AND 94W AT 01/1445 UTC.
THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED COMPLETELY.
SCATTERED STRONG NOW IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM ITS COASTAL WATERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N93W
30N89W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF FLORIDA...TO 23N91W.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 69W/70W FROM 14N TO 21N...MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W...IN THE COASTAL
WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH OF THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN THE MONA PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO ENCOMPASSES ALL OF HISPANIOLA AND ITS
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN GENERAL
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 64W AND 79W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 24N67W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 14N71W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N57W 27N59W 24N61W.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE WEST OF THE HISPANIOLA TROUGH. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
JUST IS PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...
RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN BARAHONA AND SANTO DOMINGO.
RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED PUNTA
CANA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA
FOR THE LAST 8 OR 9 OBSERVATIONS BEFORE THE RAIN STOPPED FOR THE
MOMENT. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL START NEAR 16N72W. THAT CYCLONIC CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD TO 17N82W AT THE END OF 48 HOURS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
DURING DAY ONE WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FOR DAY TWO. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF 48-HOUR
FORECAST TIME. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD TO 80W BY
THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST TIME. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST TIME EVENTUALLY WILL END UP
BEING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 11N76W...TO 09N81W...BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG IN PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND 81W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.60 IN SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO...0.47 IN TRINIDAD...0.43 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...0.05 IN MONTERREY MEXICO...AND 0.02 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N52W TO
30N53W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 30N53W TO 29N60W TO 24N67W.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 31N64W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N44W 29N50W 26N56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 19N36W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 22N
BETWEEN 26W AND 50W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 23N NORTHWARD FROM 30W EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N09W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N67W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N32W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
NORTHWARD FROM 53W EASTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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