[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N70W 18N74W 12N73W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE CUTS RIGHT ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 83W. SCATTERED STRONG IN
THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 06N16W 08N24W 08N26W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 08N26W TO 09N38W 08N42W 11N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND
40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
05N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO
11.5N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 240 NM OF THE AFRICA COAST BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
14W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 21N92W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM
23N SOUTHWARD FROM 89W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS PARTS OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED
TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CURRENT
CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS NEAR 16N81W.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N84W IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND...TO 26N87W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N90W
TO 18N93W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE SAME GEORGIA LOW PRESSURE CENTER...ACROSS THE
WESTERNMOST PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 28N90W AND TO
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COAST TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N97W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
19N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
90W AND 100W EVEN IN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 89W AND 90W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS OF EL SALVADOR.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 16N84W AT THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BETWEEN THE 16N84W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N58W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 16N58W CYCLONIC
CENTER WILL COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 47W AND 63W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N82W 17N81W 15N82W. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 80W AND 84W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WERE COVERING THE
AREA WITH THE 03/2300 UTC SURFACE OBSERVATION. IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FOR THE 04/0000 UTC OBSERVATION...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS AND OTHER BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PRESENT. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH
THUNEER ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CENTRAL AMERICA-
TO-CUBA RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND THEN ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
04/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.36 IN
TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS....0.20 IN CURACAO...AND 0.02 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N67W 24N70W 22N71W NEAR GRAND TURK
ISLAND. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N68W 23N71W 20N74W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO
30N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 08N TO 16N MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W.

AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N10W 29N21W
30N50W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
31N66W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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