[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...GALE WARNING FOR SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 72W AND
76.5W DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE NEAR MINIMAL GALE FORCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE DURING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PULSE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 06N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 05N35W TO 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC AND FLORIDA AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A 1019 MB STATIONARY HIGH IS SITUATED
ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF NEAR 29N84W.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE HIGH. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF EAST OF 86W AWAY
FROM THE HIGH CENTER. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KT ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. CURRENTLY THE GULF IS
FREE OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SHIFT
WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENHANCING THE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THESE
LOCATIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD RIDGING THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. LOW PRESSURE IS
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
TWO SURFACE FEATURES SUPPORTS NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE BAHAMAS TO JAMAICA TO NEAR 12N83W SUPPORTS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 72W AND 84W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA TO 12N BETWEEN
80W AND 85W...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ISLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEST OF THE ISLAND IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
WEAKENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA
NORTH TO 25N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. BROAD RIDGING ANCHORED BY A
1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N54W. THIS
HIGH SUPPORTS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC SOUTH OF 32N.
FARTHER EAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 34N28W SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N28W AND EXTENDS
TO 25N33W TO 23N40W TO 23N52W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THIS FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 27N TO
32N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO
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