[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Mon May 11 12:44:28 CDT 2015


AXNT20 KNHC 111744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...GALE WARNING FOR SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-
13.5N BETWEEN 72W-77W DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SEAS OF 15 FT ARE PRESENTLY BEING REPORTED
VIA SHIP REPORTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AT MODERATE GALE
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 6N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 5N26W TO 5N36W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 8W-13W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE ARE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. A
1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC E OF BERMUDA
PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 95W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 88W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REMAIN INLAND OVER TEXAS
...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO W
OF 95W DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. A 1006
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WEAKEST
WINDS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. PRESENTLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
81W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
EXTEND FROM N COLOMBIA TO BEYOND PUERTO RICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT THE GALE
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N55W. A
1005 MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N26W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 31N24W TO 23N30W. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO 21N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE COLD FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-50W SUPPORTING THE COLD
FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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