[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...GALE WARNING FOR SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 72W AND
76W DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE NEAR MINIMAL GALE FORCE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL PULSE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 20N16W TO 13N19W TO 07N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES THROUGH 05N35W TO 01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 18W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC AND FLORIDA AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A 1019 MB STATIONARY HIGH IS SITUATED
ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF NEAR 29N85W.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE HIGH. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF EAST OF 88W AWAY
FROM THE HIGH CENTER. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KT ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. CURRENTLY THE GULF IS
FREE OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SHIFT
WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENHANCING THE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THESE
LOCATIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD RIDGING THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. LOW PRESSURE IS
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
TWO SURFACE FEATURES SUPPORTS NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE BAHAMAS TO JAMAICA TO NEAR 12N80W SUPPORTS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA TO 11N BETWEEN
80W AND 84W...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE ISLAND IS INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
WEAKENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA
NORTH TO 25N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. BROAD RIDGING ANCHORED BY A
1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N54W. THIS
HIGH SUPPORTS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC SOUTH OF 32N.
FARTHER EAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 34N32W SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N30W AND EXTENDS
TO 25N35W TO 23N46W TO 26N56W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THIS FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 27N TO
32N BETWEEN 31W AND 39W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


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