[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS THURSDAY MORNING AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 04W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OCCURRING AT
THE SURFACE ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING IN SUPPORT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF WATERS W OF A
LINE FROM 29N90W TO 19N96W. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 82W-
86W. LOOKING AHEAD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND TROUGHING
MOVING EAST...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING...USHERING IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 09N77W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER SHOWS A
FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 71W.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE AS AN OVERALL
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LENDING TO GENTLE TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TRADES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOTED BETWEEN N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W-60W OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N46W SW TO 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS LINGER TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 60W-
70W. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA FROM 30N80W TO 27N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. FARTHER EAST...THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N22W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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