[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N10W TO
1N13W TO 1S20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 1S20W TO 2S30W TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 3S39W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 0N-6N BETWEEN 2W-7W DUE TO MONSOON FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 2N-3S BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 83W-86W. MORE SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE NW GULF AND NE MEXICO FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 95W-100W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
SUBSIDENCE IS IS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 24N TO INCLUDE W CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER THE NW GULF AND EXTEND FROM S LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-
80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER TRINIDAD.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN
75W-79W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N50W TO 25N60W TO 24N65W. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 24N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N23W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 43W. IN THE TROPICS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 50W-60W MOVING W.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-70W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
31N42W TO 23N52W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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