[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS THURSDAY MORNING AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 20N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 06W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OCCURRING AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING IN SUPPORT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF N OF 23N
BETWEEN 90W-95W. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 82W-86W.
LOOKING AHEAD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND TROUGHING
MOVING EAST...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING...USHERING IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 09N77W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER SHOWS A
FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE AS AN OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
LENDING TO GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE TRADES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOTED BETWEEN N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-60W OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N45W SW TO 27N50W TO 23N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF
50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-
27N BETWEEN 50W-70W. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT...
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 29N W OF 75W. FARTHER EAST...THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N21W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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