[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 06W...AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 16W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AND
STABLE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING. AS OF 25/0300
UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD TO THE WESTERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR
23N84W. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY S OF 25N E OF 86W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
OTHER NOTEWORTHY BOUNDARY IS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TO 17N91W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
INTO WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HOWEVER SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N80W.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NOTED
BETWEEN N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-60W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N55W SW TO 28N60W TO 26N72W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF
27N BETWEEN 46W-58W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
W OF 58W. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING
TREND AND BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS FROM 35N74W
TO 31N80W TO 28N79W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SHALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 77W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N25W. THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 25N50W TO 22N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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