[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
02N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
03W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N
BETWEEN 16W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AND
STABLE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA
OF SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED OFF OF
THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W TO A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO A LARGER SCALE
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
25N88W ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TO 18N91W. WHILE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE LACKING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 87W. ELSEWHERE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN GEORGIA TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 22N99W. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AS THIS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N79W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HOWEVER SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SW OF HISPANIOLA...
AND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 66W. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N81W.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NOTED
BETWEEN N OF 25N BETWEEN 48W-57W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N54W SW TO 27N66W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 44W-57W...AND WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 57W. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
LACKING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND AND BECOME DIFFUSE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS FROM 35N76W INTO A 1017 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N81W. THE LOW AND TROUGHING IS PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 76W. FARTHER
EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N25W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW
FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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