[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 242349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 5N9W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 15W...TO 1S19W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 1S19W TO 3S30W AND TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 4S BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 1S TO 3S BETWEEN 7W AND 9W...AND FROM 1N TO 5S BETWEEN 24W
AND 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 44W AND 49W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM SIERRA LEONE TO 5N41W AND 5N58W
IN EASTERN GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES WESTERLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO ALONG 22N/23N.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...ALONG
25N/26N AT 81W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART AND THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA ALONG 81W...ALONG THE
REST OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 76W
AND 80W COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...TO
NORTHERN COASTAL CUBA. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS THE SOUTHERNMOST
PART OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING
THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N65W TO 26N74W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE AND HAZE ARE BEING REPORTED AT KXIH. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGHB...KGRY...
KIKT...KVOA...AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREAS THAT ARE TO THE EAST
AND TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA...IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...IN PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FROM PERRY WESTWARD...AND AT THE ST.
PETERSBURG FLORIDA AIRPORT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N FROM 74W EASTWARD...AND FROM
17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 74W AND 82W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N NORTHWARD FROM
JAMAICA EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW ALSO IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO
THE MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE
EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N75W TO 14N70W BEYOND
14N60W. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 25N34W 17N45W 12N57W.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N81W TO THE SOUTH OF
CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
32N37W TO 28N44W TO 23N61W...TO THE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR CUBA. A RIDGE CONTINUES FROM THE 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER TO CENTRAL HONDURAS.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD JAMAICA AND
CUBA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-
WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO-
WEST ORIENTED CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO
26N70W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N65W TO 26N74W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA...ALONG 25N/26N AT
81W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND
58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N54W 26N63W 24N75W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N37W TO
28N44W TO 23N61W...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 21N81W...TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO 27N28W...TO 25N34W 17N45W AND 12N57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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