[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THIS MINIMAL GALE WILL
CONTINUE TO MIDDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N17W ALONG 9N20W TO 3N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 7W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC
GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A PERSISTENT
COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO
27N87W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 24N94W TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W GULF S OF 26N W OF 90W AND
FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 90W-95W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W
OF THE FRONT BUILDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND DISSIPATE OVER N FLORIDA TODAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM OFFSHORE OF NE MEXICO TO THE E
BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH TUE EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N TO
OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM N COLOMBIA TO E
CUBA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED FAST MOVING...LOW LEVEL SHOWERS...
USHERED IN BY THE TRADE WINDS...DOT THE CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-20N E
OF 85W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE TRADE
WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF
78W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AGAIN
THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COMBINED WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS MAINTAINING STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THIS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH
MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES DOMINATE THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH SOME
ISOLATED FAST MOVING...LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE S
PORTION OF THE ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON. MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONT TO
THE N INCREASING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE W ATLC
WITH THE AXIS FROM E CUBA TO BEYOND 32N70W. THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH ABOUT 475 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N34W AND EXTENDS ALONG
26N42W TO 24N50W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO
22N64W. DUE TO THE DRY AIR OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS N OF 32N. A WEAKENING SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT E. THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT N
AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE W ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH THE W
ATLC REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FROM
32N50W ALONG 22N65W TO 23N78W ON TUE THEN WASHING OUT ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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