[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151711
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THIS MINIMAL GALE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT 1800 UTC WHEN THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 3N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4N BETWEEN 25W-38W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 42W-
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 27N80W
TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N86W. THE FRONT IS PRESENTLY VOID
OF PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 23N94W TO 20N94W TO 18N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 91W-95W. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W
OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SE
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 24N109W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER INLAND MEXICO S OF 20N BETWEEN 98W-103W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE...WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PERSISTS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH SHORTLY. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKEST WINDS S OF E CUBA.
PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA MOSTLY N OF 13N.
RADAR IMAGERY OVER PUERTO RICO CONFIRMS SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. IN ADDITION SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 77W.
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO BE OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER NE HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH THE
TRADEWINDS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N76W TO S
FLORIDA AT 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT N OF 29N. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N45W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
FROM 31N33W TO 23N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF
THE FRONT.  1022 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT 32N23W.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 23N17W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM 31N59W
TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE E
ATLANTIC FRONT TO BE N OF 31N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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