[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THIS MINIMAL GALE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W ALONG 4N18W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N31W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 5W
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM THE PLAIN STATES TO OVER
MEXICO HAS BECOME AN CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE W COAST OF
MEXICO. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN INTO
THE W ATLC. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF WATERS SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE...A PERSISTENT COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF NEAR
APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA ALONG 28N85W TO 26N89W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG 23N94W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF
THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W GULF S OF 28N W OF THE FRONT.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF THE FRONT WITH A 1020
MB HIGH ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W. N PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF LATER TODAY WHILE THE S PORTION
BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SW GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N TO
OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 74W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER MOISTURE
IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED FAST
MOVING...LOW LEVEL SHOWERS...USHERED IN BY THE TRADE WINDS...DOT
THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 83W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE TRADE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN
30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N W OF
81W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AGAIN
TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COMBINED WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WILL
DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

HISPANIOLA...
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES DOMINATE THE ISLAND TONIGHT WITH SOME
ISOLATED FAST MOVING...LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MON. ON TUE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A
FRONT TO THE N. THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR
TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE W ATLC
WITH THE AXIS ALONG 74W. THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH ABOUT 475 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE E ATLC NEAR 32N35W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N43W TO 25N49W WHERE
IT DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 22N60W TO 23N71W. DUE
TO THE DRY AIR OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS N OF 32N. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE E ATLC. THE E ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E. THE
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST OVERNIGHT REACHING
FROM 32N59W ALONG 27N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY MON
THEN FROM 32N50W ALONG 22N65W TO 23N78W BY EARLY TUE BEFORE
WASHING OUT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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