[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE WINDS DIMINISHED OVER COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ARE FORECAST TO RESUME TONIGHT CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N15W SW TO 03N17W TO 01N21W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W TO THE COAST OF
NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITH BASE STRETCHING
FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO A 1015 MB
LOW CENTERED ON SE ALABAMA. SURFACE WIND AND TEMPERATURE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THAT LOW TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29N84W SW TO 27N86W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO 23N92W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
18N94W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT GENERATED BY A LOW S OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE CENTERED ON THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS RELATED TO THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
THE WESTERN GULF ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE
NW GULF A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N94W THAT IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN ARE
VARIABLE FROM 5 TO 10 KT...EXCEPT OVER THE SW GULF WHERE AN
EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS OF 15 KT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SW N ATLC WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

OUTSIDE NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
REFERENCED ON THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...THE CARIBBEAN SEA
HAS NO SURFACE FEATURES OF INTEREST NOR IS THERE ANY ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION. A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS ALONG 74W...WHICH IS PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ON THE
CENTRAL AND SW BASIN THAT BESIDES NEAR GALE WINDS ALSO FORCES E
TO NE TRADEWINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 66W AND 82W. TRADES OF
15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS
DOMINATE THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS ALONG THE COASTS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT EAST-NORTHEAST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N39W SW TO 25N49W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 22N62W TO 22N71W.
POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS WEST AND
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FROM
THE N-NE OF 15-20 KT AS WELL AS ON THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF THE
FRONT S OF 24N. ELSEWHERE...N OF 24N VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KT DOMINATE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MONDAY
MORNING WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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