[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THIS MINIMAL GALE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BEFORE RESUMING TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 2N-
4N BETWEEN 3W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-1S
BETWEEN 18W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N94W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
31N87W TO 28N86W TO 24N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 90W-93W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N92W TO 17N93W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN
94W-98W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER MEXICO WITH AN
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N108W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER INLAND MEXICO FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 98W-103W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER MOST OF THE
GULF E OF 95W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO PERSIST WITH 20-30 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS PULSING ON AND OFF ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE
ABOVE. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA MOSTLY N OF 13N AND E OF 87W.
RADAR IMAGERY OVER PUERTO RICO CONFIRMS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE ISLAND. IN ADDITION SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER
THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH LITTLE
CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER NE HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH THE
TRADEWINDS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 37N65W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N41W TO 23N60W TO 23N70W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAHAMAS AT 26N77W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N E OF 40W. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N30W.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM
31N33W TO 27N40W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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