[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THIS MINIMAL GALE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BEFORE RESUMING TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N16W ALONG 8N20W TO 2N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N E
OF 2W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 6W-11W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 11W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PLAIN STATES TO OVER
MEXICO INCLUDING THE W GULF OF MEXICO WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF
OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR
PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N87W TO 22N88W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA JUST E OF
MERIDA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 24N87W TO INLAND
OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR APALACHEE BAY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF W OF THE FRONT WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N92W
WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE SW GULF WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N W OF 92W. THE N PORTION OF A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E THEN OUT OF THE GULF ON SUN. THE S
PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL TODAY AND DRIFT W AND WEAKEN TO
A NW/SE ORIENTATED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH
MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N TO OVER THE
W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED FAST MOVING...LOW LEVEL SHOWERS...USHERED IN BY THE
TRADE WINDS...DOT THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW
COLOMBIA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH EARLY SUN. FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES DOMINATE THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED FAST MOVING...LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE W ATLC
WITH THE AXIS ALONG 73W. THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH ABOUT 350 NM
OFF THE MARYLAND COAST. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 28N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 32N41W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N52W TO 23N64W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 25N73W. DUE TO THE DRY AIR OVER THE W INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS N OF 32N. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE E ATLC. THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL LATE
TODAY AND BEGIN TO DRIFT N ON SUN. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT SE TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC N
OF 30N TONIGHT AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON
SUN NIGHT THEN FROM 32N58W ALONG 25N65W TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA ON MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net