[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140521
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THIS MINIMAL GALE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WHEN THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BEFORE RESUMING TO GALE FORCE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W ALONG 3N17W TO 1N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 00N31W 1N44W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 11W016W AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
3.5N8.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PLAIN STATES TO OVER
MEXICO INCLUDING THE W GULF OF MEXICO WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF
OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR
THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N87W TO
23N88W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
JUST E OF MERIDA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF THE FRONT WITH A 1017 MB
HIGH NEAR 25N93W WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW ATLC
EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FAR E GULF. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
AND TEXAS BETWEEN VERMILION BAY TO JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SW GULF WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 92W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY E AND REACH FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE LATER TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE
THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE N GULF EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N TO OVER THE
W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN TONIGHT. ISOLATED
FAST MOVING...LOW LEVEL SHOWERS...USHERED IN BY THE TRADE
WINDS...DOT THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-70W AND OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-20N W OF 81W TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COMBINED
WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE
FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH EARLY
SUN. FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH SOME
LATE THIS WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES DOMINATE THE ISLAND TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED FAST MOVING...LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE E
PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE W ATLC
WITH THE AXIS ALONG 75W. THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH ABOUT 250 NM OFF THE
MARYLAND COAST. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 28N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N42W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N53W 24N64W TO
25N73W. DUE TO THE DRY AIR OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS N OF 30N. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. THE
CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES S REACHING
FROM 32N38W ALONG 23N65W TO THE 24N74W ON SAT THEN DISSIPATES S
OF 23N ON SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S OF 30N SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE SUN
NIGHT AND FROM 32N58W 25N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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