[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT MAR 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS
COLOMBIA AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC
IS GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
04N14W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO THE EQUATOR
NEAR 22W THEN TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
W OF 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPORY IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NE
GULF ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN N
ATLC WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS S FL AND
OVER THE GULF NEAR 25N82W TO 23N90W TO A 1019 MB SURFACE LOW
OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 19N93W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM
THE SURFACE LOW TO 21N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS AL/MS IS PRODUCING EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAINLY
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WINDS UP TO 25 KT OVER
THE SW BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO.  THE HIGH TO
THE NORTH OF THE BASIN WILL SLIDE EAST AND OFF THE US EASTERN
COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS OVER THE GULF
TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THEY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
COVERING THE BASIN. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF
FORCING IS PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING LIMITED...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE SW NORTHERN ATLC AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS.
ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT COVER THE BASIN. LITTLE
CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FORM THE US EAST COAST AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND
INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N68W TO 28N75W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO HOMESTEAD FL NEAR 25N81W. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N38W
PROVIDES FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC N OF 25N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N47W TO
14N49W AND IS CO-LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
19N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 24N
BETWEEN 44W AND 53W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN ATLC AND EXTENDS FROM 31N16W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 21N17W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY PORTION OF
THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE WHILE THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFF THE EASTERN US AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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