[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS
COLOMBIA AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION
IS GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N-13N BETWEEN 73.5W-77.5W. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
04N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 12W-14W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 02N BETWEEN 19W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN NORTH ATLC
WITH AN EMBEDDED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE BASIN AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N82W TO
23N90W INTO A WEAK 1019 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N93W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF
90W AND GENERALLY S OF 25N W OF 90W ACROSS THE SW GULF THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB
HIGH CENTERED ACROSS NE LOUISIANA AND A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS NE MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS
FOCUSED WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NW TO
22N97W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH SUN WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST WINDS BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT S OF
20N OVER THE BASIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N62W W-SW TO 13N76W. THESE
OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WITH THE LARGEST IMPACT REMAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
E OF 83W...AND NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N-13N BETWEEN
73.5W-77.5W. OTHERWISE...THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SURFACE RIDGING
REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...
OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH ONLY A SLIM PROBABILITY OF A PASSING ISOLATED SHOWER WITHIN
TRADE WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL
CUBA NE TO 32N46W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE
AIR REMAINS SOUTH OF THIS AXIS WHILE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS PREVAILS N OF 32N PRECEDING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLC COAST THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE OVERALL BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN NORTH
ATLC...SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N68W SW TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE
SW NORTH ATLC WATERS S OF 32N W OF 70W. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAIR ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
OCCURRING S OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-72W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N46W THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 15N47W TO 24N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 42W-48W. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
12N43W TO THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 22N17W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. FINALLY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N35W W-SW TO 26N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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