[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF S OF 20N W OF 94W FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BETWEEN A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
26N82W TO 19N93W AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB
HIGH CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 28N98W. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS
COLOMBIA AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION
IS GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
01N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
01N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 09W-12W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 01N32W TO 03N40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN NORTH ATLC
WITH AN EMBEDDED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE BASIN AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N82W TO
22N90W TO 18N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 90W AND GENERALLY S OF 25N W OF
90W ACROSS THE SW GULF THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS NE MISSISSIPPI
AND A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN
WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS LASTING A FEW MORE HOURS S OF
20N W OF 94W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH SUN
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE EAST WINDS BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT S OF
20N OVER THE BASIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N62W W-SW TO 13N78W. THESE OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST IMPACT REMAINING
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES W OF 82W...AND NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NE
TO E WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. OTHERWISE...THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...
OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THIS OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH ONLY A SLIM PROBABILITY OF A PASSING ISOLATED SHOWER WITHIN
TRADE WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER WESTERN
CUBA NE TO 32N48W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE
AIR REMAINS SOUTH OF THIS AXIS WHILE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS PREVAILS N OF 32N PRECEDING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE OVERALL BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN NORTH
ATLC...SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N68W SW TO 28N77W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
27N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS N OF 29N W OF
74W. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 25N BETWEEN 57W-70W.
FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
19N48W THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 20N47W
TO 24N45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY TO
THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 41W-46W. GIVEN THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 270 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N40W TO THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 22N16W. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA...INCLUDING
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FINALLY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N35W W-SW TO 26N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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