[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072314
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT MAR 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W TO 4N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 19W-26W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE GULF WATERS W-
SW FLOW ALOFT. A LINGERING 1021 MB LOW IS IN THE SW GULF NEAR
19N94W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW ALONG 21N96W TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF LINE FROM JUST S OF
GALVESTON TEXAS ALONG 24N95W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. OTHERWISE
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS EVENING
ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER NE LOUISIANA. THE LOW AND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE SUN. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EXTREME NW GULF SUN AND MEANDER THERE THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 86W S OF 22N
COVERING THE AREA W OF 76W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E
ATLC THROUGH THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE TO 15N76W. VERY DRY AND STABLE
AIR WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO GIVE PERSISTENT STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE BASIN WITH THE WINDS TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THESE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 19N E OF 75W AND
S OF 17N BETWEEN 75W-85W. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE
CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A LINGERING COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N61W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N73W
TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
ACROSS THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS TO 25N81W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW MID
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE FRONT.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 25N66W
TO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND BEYOND 32N42W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC NEAR 31N22W ALONG 24N25W TO AN
UPPER LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N49W CONTINUING INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG
50W FROM 13N-22N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 46W-50W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 31N37W. THE NE PORTION OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
WHILE THE W PORTION MEANDERS AROUND 26N BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE
AREA MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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