[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FROM 11.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 72W AND
77W...AND S OF 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W UNTIL 1800 UTC SATURDAY.
SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FT IN NE SWELL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WARNED
AREA FROM 72W TO 77W...AND SEAS TO 9 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WARNED AREA FROM 70W TO 72W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W FROM 12N TO
04N MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
MOISTURE CONFINED S OF 10 N ALONG THE WAVE...WITH SAHARAN DUST N
OF 10 N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN
22W AND 27W.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 12N
TO 04N...MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM 16N TO
08N...MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND IN CENTRAL AMERICA...ALONG 85W/86W
FROM HONDURAS TO NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...TO OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WATERS...MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND COSTA RICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA NEAR
12N16W TO 08N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS WEST OF AN EASTERN ATLC
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N27W TO 08N41W...AND RESUMES EAST OF A
CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N46W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA
NEAR 05N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO
11N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE BASIN WITH RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO CENTRAL FL
TO THE TX GULF COAST...RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 15 KT ACROSS
THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
FROM 23N94W TO 17N94W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 23N OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. OTHER CONVECTION OVER THE NEAR-SHORE
WATERS OF THE EASTERN GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME CONVECTION
OVER FL AND CUBA THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE SW
GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...WITH CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. A MID LEVEL LOW OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN SUPPORTS
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 22N
BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. OTHER CONVECTION NEAR THE SHORES OF CUBA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WILL WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

MODERATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING
SW TOWARD THE ISLAND AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE ISLAND ON
SATURDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N75W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NEAR 21N67W AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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