[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC
EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS FROM 11.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W WITH 10 TO 15 FT
SEAS SWELL AND S OF 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
26W MOVING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE. METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICT SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS
LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 08N
BETWEEN 24W AND 28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
44W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE EXCEPT WITHIN 175 NM W OF ITS AXIS
FROM 09N TO 11N WHERE A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 76W
FROM 16N TO PANAMA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT IS HINDERING DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 08N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N29W
AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 09N43W THEN RESUMES
W OF THE WAVE NEAR 08N46W TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 06N55W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN
28W AND 42W. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 06N TO 09N E OF 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS AN
AXIS NE INTO THE NW GULF TO OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS SW TO W ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF EXCEPT THE SW BASIN WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 23N92W TO 17N94W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH S OF 20N W OF 94W. INFLOW OF MOISTURE FROM
THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N TO 27N E OF 84W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER GULF...THUS
FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 KT ARE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N83W. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NE GULF WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW BASIN. FOR DETAILS SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN AND THE CENTRAL
BASIN WHILE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF PUERTO RICO
COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 80W. METEOSAT
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST
COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN...THUS SUPPORTING HAZE. THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA
SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
HOWEVER...METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR...WHICH IS SUPPORTING HAZE OVER THE
EASTERN ISLAND. EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE ATLC BEING ANCHORED BY A 1021
MB HIGH NEAR 28N74W. METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST COVERING THE TROPICS S OF 20N EXTENDING INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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