[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED CURRENTLY...AND ARE BEING
FORECAST FOR...THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...AND IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. EXPECT SEA
HEIGHTS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15
FEET...AND TO 9 FEET IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE
SURGE OF MOISTURE. METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE
ITCZ FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W FROM 12N SOUTHWARD.
IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT.  THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH SURGE OF
MOISTURE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 35W
AND 46W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY DRY AIR.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND IN CENTRAL AMERICA...ALONG 85W/86W
FROM HONDURAS TO NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD
10 KT. EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS TAKING PLACE IN BELIZE HAS WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS REMAIN FROM BELIZE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N17W AND 9N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
9N18W TO 8N23W TO 10N32W AND 10N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA
AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 24N88W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...NEARLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA... MOVING
AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N88W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD...RELATED TO THE 22N62W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
TROPICAL WAVE ALSO IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE
READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND NORTHERN ADJACENT WATERS THAT ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SW TO W OF THE ISLAND SUPPORT CLOUDINESS.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN
DUST...WHICH IS SUPPORTING HAZE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N28W...
THROUGH 25N40W...TO A 22N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A
24N88W GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE
EASTERN SECTION OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO/AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS AROUND THE 22N62W CYCLONIC
CENTER...FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.

A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N75W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE
BAHAMAS NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W AND FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N43W TO 22N59W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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