[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191028
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA THROUGH
FRI EVENING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REOCCUR FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC
EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW
SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TRPCL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TRPCL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 21W
MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE.
METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN
THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
41W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
HIGH SURGE OF MOISTURE THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 44W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 74W FROM
16N TO INLAND COLOMBIA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT IS HINDERING
DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
07N24W AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N38W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 06N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 06N57W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 220 NM S OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 24W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS NE
INTO THE NW GULF NEAR TO OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE E GULF TO 94W
WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N84W. OVER THE SW GULF...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N94W TO 16N94W WITH NO PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 KT
IS OVER THE SE AND NW BASIN WHILE 5 KT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
PREVAILS ON THE NE GULF. E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 20N TO
22N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NE GULF WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA THROUGH FRI
EVENING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASIN. FOR DETAILS SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION. THE BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN
CHANNEL COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W. AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. A
MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 16N
W OF 80W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICT SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING HAZE. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND NORTHERN ADJACENT WATERS THAT ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SW TO W OF THE ISLAND SUPPORT CLOUDINESS.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN
DUST...WHICH IS SUPPORTING HAZE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 64W ANCHORED N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. E OF THE RIDGE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN
64W AND 68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WESTERN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN WITH A
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N75W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
26N46W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST COVERING THE TROPICS S OF 23N
EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN...THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS SAT
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AFTERWARDS...SURFACE RIDGING
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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