[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS
A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGH IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AND ITS
AXIS IS LOCATED JUST W OF A 700 MB WIND MAXIMUM REGION THAT
EXTENDS E OF 29W. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING THIS WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. SAHARAN DUST ALSO IS MOVING AROUND THIS
WAVE... WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF
THIS WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE
CONFINED S OF 10N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT ACROSS COLOMBIA. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 11N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N20W TO
9N27W...8N31W 7N35W 7N38W 6N43W 5N47W 5N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N44W 7N49W 6N54W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N FROM 22W
EASTWARD...AND FROM 5N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W WESTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N87W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE TROUGH...FROM 93W WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N92W
23N93W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W...
AND ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF CUBA IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND
FROM 14N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N IN
NICARAGUA TO 18N IN BELIZE BETWEEN 85W AND 92W IN SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT ACROSS COLOMBIA. PLEASE READ
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH...COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD FROM 78W EASTWARD.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AT THE SOUTHERN
END OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES FROM
A 30N60W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 82W FROM 14N SOUTHWARD.

THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD REACHING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA HAVE BEEN DEPICTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...WHILE A DRY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
THIS WIND FLOW REGIME IS IN PLACE ON TOP OF MIDDLE LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL
SECTIONS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
FROM SANTIAGO TO PUERTO PLATA. THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N60W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 31N58W 29N63W 28N67W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W.

A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE 1020 MB LOW CENTER TO 23N42W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 21N TO 29N BETWEEN
37W AND 43W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM A 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N53W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N54W...TO 23N55W. A SECOND
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N70W...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR 29N82W...BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO
30N26W 24N33W AND 20N40W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net