[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
14N27W TO 05N28W. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGH
IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AND ITS AXIS IS LOCATED JUST W
OF A 700 MB WIND MAXIMUM REGION THAT EXTENDS E OF 29W. TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL MOIST ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE
WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-11N
BETWEEN 25W-30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING
FROM 13N37W TO 04N38W MOVING W AT 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT
OF THIS WAVE...SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO MOVING AROUND THIS WAVE
WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG 08N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
16N60W TO 07N61W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE
HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE CONFINED S OF 10N. ISOLATED
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 10N AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF GUYANA AND NE VENEZUELA.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 14N73W
TO 08N73W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS FEATURE. DESPITE THIS...NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
PREVAILS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 09N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 09N26W THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N30W TO 07N35W THEN
RESUMES AGAIN NEAR 05N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
05N52W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 28W...ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N85W
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE
COMBINATION OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
26N94W TO 19N95W SUPPORTS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF N 0F 22N BETWEEN 89W-94W.
FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AFFECTING
THE E GULF MAINLY E OF 83W. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
ATLANTIC REACHES THE GULF SUPPORTING A LIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WITH CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS
THE FAR W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS CUBA AND ITS ADJACENT WATERS MAINLY W OF 74W. AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N82W PREVAILS OVER THE S-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN  SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN WHILE A DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTION OF THE ISLAND MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. THIS
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 28N52W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N60W IS
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N66W TO
30N58W. TO THE E...A WEAK 1020 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THIS LOW FROM 30N41W TO
26N38W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW ACROSS
THE WHOLE BASIN. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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