[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS
A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGH IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AND ITS
AXIS IS LOCATED JUST W OF A 700 MB WIND MAXIMUM REGION THAT
EXTENDS E OF 29W. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING THIS WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN
30W AND 38W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. SAHARAN DUST ALSO IS MOVING AROUND THIS
WAVE...WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF
THIS WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 2N
TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE
CONFINED S OF 10N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS COLOMBIA. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE
NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM SIX HOURS AGO NOW IS ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN A FEW CLUSTERS...OFF THE COAST OF
PANAMA FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...AND ALONG THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 8N16W AND 7N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N18W TO
6N25W 6N30W 7N33W 9N36W AND 7N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N47W 8N50W...
AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N87W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE TROUGH...TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF
COAST TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
29N92W 23N93W SURFACE TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED
AND IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 13/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
TO THE EAST OF THE TEXAS-TO-YUCATAN PENINSULA LINE THAT DENOTES
DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT ACROSS COLOMBIA. PLEASE READ
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH...COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 83W WESTWARD IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE IN
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS TO GUATEMALA.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD FROM 78W EASTWARD.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AT THE SOUTHERN
END OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES FROM
A 30N60W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 82W FROM 14N SOUTHWARD.

THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH
FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA HAVE BEEN DEPICTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST...
MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...WHILE A DRY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
THIS WIND FLOW REGIME IS IN PLACE ON TOP OF MIDDLE LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL
SECTIONS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW TO
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTIAGO TO
PUERTO PLATA. THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N60W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 31N57W 29N63W 28N69W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W.

A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE 1020 MB LOW CENTER TO 26N38W AND 24N41W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO
29N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM A 1024 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N54W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N53W...TO 22N54W. A SECOND
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N70W...ACROSS 30N THROUGH FLORIDA
AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...TO EAST TEXAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO
24N30W AND 20N41W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT
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