[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 23W/24W FROM
3N-14N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A
MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 49W
FROM 4N-13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A
MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM
16N60W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N62W MOVING W-NW NEAR
10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY
IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 59W-63W
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...BARBADOS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N14W TO 9N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE EASTERN MOST
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N28W ALONG 5N41W TO JUST E OF THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 30W-41W AND FROM 8N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 41W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA INTO THE GULF
ALONG 25N87W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THIS IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 29N85W TO 24N89W. THIS SCENARIO IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE E GULF TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A
DIURNAL SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN E OF 92W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE
NE GULF AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N OF THE AREA ON THU AS T.D.
THREE-E IN THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC STRENGTHENS. SE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO STRONG ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH
EARLY THU WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING N ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CENTRAL GULF ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FRI
NIGHT AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS COVERING THE NW
CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 84W. AN
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND EXTENDING AN AXIS N ACROSS E CUBA
TO OVER THE W ATLC AND A SECOND AXIS NE ACROSS PUERTO RICO/THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 77W-84W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF
14N BETWEEN 59W-63W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...BARBADOS...
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE E THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU NIGHT AND
FRI THEN THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN ON SAT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRI THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER ARE ACROSS
HAITI WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY COULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA OVER THE
W ATLC W OF 70W TO THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. DIFFLUNCE
ALOFT TO THE E IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF 77W TO OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. AN
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N66W TO 22N67W AND IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N61W TO A WEAK 1017 MB LOW NEAR
27N65W TO 25N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N45W. THE W ATLC
SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY E INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC THU.  A E/W SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST E OF THE ABOVE
SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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