[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 24W/25W FROM
3N-12W MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A
MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W
FROM 5N-13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A
MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 15N62W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N63W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 60W-65W
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 18N16W ALONG 13N16W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE
EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N27W ALONG 4N41W TO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 12W-27W...FROM 2N-8N
BETWEEN 30W-43W AND FROM 9N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR AND INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 43W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA CONTINUING ACROSS THE
GULF ALONG 25N86W TO W CUBA THEN S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N E OF 92W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG 92W S OF 21N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-
96W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER
AGAIN THIS MONRING. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS THE NE GULF AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N OF THE AREA TODAY
AS THE T.D. THREE-E IN THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC STRENGTHENS. SE
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING N ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CENTRAL GULF BY FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA AND EXTENDING AN AXIS N ACROSS E CUBA TO OVER
THE W ATLC WITH A SECOND AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF 79W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CUBA. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
14N BETWEEN 60W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND FRI THEN INTO THE SW
CARIBBEAN ON SAT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN LATE FRI THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY COULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE WEDGED BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND A SECOND UPPER TROUGH TO THE E COVERS THE W ATLC W OF
70W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 77W TO OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. THE
SECOND UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N65W TO 23N66W AND IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO A WEAK 1018 MB LOW
NEAR 27N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N42W. THE W ATLC
SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY E INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC TODAY. A E/W SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST W OF THE ABOVE
SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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