[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 22W
MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. SAHARAN DRY
AIR AND DUST ARE IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS
HINDERING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH SLIGHT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
10N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 46W
MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. SAHARAN DRY
AIR AND DUST ARE IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS
HINDERING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH SLIGHT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
08N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR
60W MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY AND THE METEOSAT SAL TRACKING PRODUCT INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS AND IN THE NORTHERN
WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
WAVE AXIS S OF 13N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N26W TO 04N43W TO 03N51W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 28W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW TO W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE FAR EASTERN GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN BASIN SUPPORT A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE ANALYZED
AS A TROUGH FROM 27N82W TO 24N89W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
CONTINUOUS INFLOW OF MODERATE MOIST AIR FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO
THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH ALONG THE
LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 29N E OF 90W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICT DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...THUS FAVORING
FAIR WEATHER. LIGHT TO GENTLE S-SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE BY THURSDAY INTO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE LEVELS AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE BASIN PROVIDING DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS E OF 76W S OF 18N. OVER THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BASIN...SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW ABUNDANT
MOISTURE THAT ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE VICINITY
OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N84W TO 15N88W...INCLUDING CUBA. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT JUST N OF HISPANIOLA THAT ALONG SHALLOW MOISTURE
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KT ARE FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W WITH SEAS TO 9
FT. SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE S OF 21N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC IS GENERATING A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT JUST N OF HISPANIOLA THAT ALONG SHALLOW
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE FAIR WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING WHEN A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NE OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. WHILE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...THE MID-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 26N-31N W OF 77W AND WITHIN 60
NM N OF THE CUBA COASTLINE BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. FARTHER
EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 66W SUPPORTS A 1018
MB LOW NEAR 26N65W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N60W SW TO THE
LOW TO 24N72W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH E OF
THE LOW CENTER. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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