[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TODAY S OF 25N W OF 94W IN THE WAKE A STRONG COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. GALE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FRI NIGHT N OF 30N W 0F 77W
IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 7N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N27W 3N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 21N-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS W CUBA TO NE FLORIDA GIVING
THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW GULF
NEAR 28N94W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S INTO MEXICO JUST N OF
TAMPICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW E ACROSS SE LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N90W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS MOVING S OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES INTO N MEXICO
GIVING THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF AND
GENERATE THE GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N
BETWEEN 87W-94W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N W OF 94W. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE TOWARD THE
W FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON FRI. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE W GULF FRI AND OUT OF THE GULF ON SAT. HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA TO W CUBA THEN
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-72W
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THESE SAME WINDS ARE
BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W TO S NICARAGUA NEAR 12N. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN
ON LATE SAT AND WEAKEN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA
SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SOME EASTERLY TRADE WIND GENERATED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH FRI.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SAT WITH APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ON LATE
SAT INTO SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS THE W ATLC WITH W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO 28N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N49W TO 23N53W. AN INDUCED UPPER RIDGE TO
THE E IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 25N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES.
THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND RETREAT NORTHWARD TODAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC
DISCUSSION AREA EARLY SAT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE FRONT.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE E
REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY SUN BEFORE IT STALLS
FROM 32N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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