[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...

A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. NORTHERLY WINDS NW OF FRONT WILL REACH GALE FORCE
S OF 25N W OF 94W. SEAS WILL BE 8-10 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 30 KT 06 HOURS LATER.

...GALE WARNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IN 30 HOURS...

SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF A COLD FRONT WILL REACH GALE FORCE N OF 30N
W OF 77W. LATER IN 48 HOURS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ALSO BE W OF
FRONT. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO 24N80W. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE N OF 28N W OF FRONT...AND N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 8-17 FT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 05N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 02N30W TO 03N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 26W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS NEAR 28N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE
COAST OF NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE
LOW TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W AND CONTINUES TO THE NE GULF AT
30N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. PRESENTLY 25-30 KT WINDS ARE NW OF FRONT. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRI. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE. E OF FRONT 15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS ...WHILE BROAD
RIDGING WITH WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N86W TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AT 18N94W WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...AND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO W CUBA. A
BAND OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPEND FROM BELIZE TO S OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI DUE TO MOIST TRADEWINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N68W TO
28N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT. A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N49W TO
23N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 22N BETWEEN 47W-
51W. A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
THE AZORES AT 39N24W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 24N BETWEEN 12W-28W TO
INCLUDE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N32W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. ALSO EXPECT IN 30 HOURS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF A COLD FRONT TO REACH
GALE FORCE N OF 30N W OF 77W. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA

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