[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 36 HOURS...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NE OF AREA AND A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM 30N85W TO 18N93W. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INDUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS S OF 21N W OF 95W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8-10 FT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN 12 HOURS.

...GALE WARNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IN 48 HOURS...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N
OF 30N BETWEEN 77W-79W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 12-14 FT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N13W ALONG 06N11W TO 05N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N20W 03N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 12W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE GULF SUPPORTING SW FLOW ALOFT. A 1012 MB
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH ITS
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FROM 28N99W TO
28N103W TO 31N106W. ANOTHER 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 21N97W.
WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOSTLY NEAR THE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS DEPICTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
MOVING SOUTH AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO INCREASE AS THE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NW
GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE FEATURES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM VENEZUELA TO W CUBA THEN
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W-
79W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED BY LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 22N62W TO 18N63W
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN IN 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND. ISOLATED WEAK
CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
CARIBBEAN IN 48 HOURS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
IT APPROACHES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS N ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE W ATLANTIC WITH W
TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING A DIFFLUENT FLOW EAST OF ITS
AXIS WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N49W TO 24N53W. THE
CONVECTION IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 46W-55W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
22N62W TO 18N63W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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