[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N13W ALONG 6N14W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N25W 4N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 11W-
14W...FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 20W-24W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 34W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A
REMNANT...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE
NE GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N86W TO 24N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO
INLAND ACROSS TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO SPREAD FROM W TO E ACROSS THE W GULF N OF 22N W OF
90W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL WILL DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE
BY TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS WILL OFF THE COAST TODAY
AND RACE NE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TONIGHT TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY LATE FRI. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E
ACROSS THE W GULF TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON FRI
AND PASS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON SAT AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM VENEZUELA TO W CUBA THEN
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 84W TO OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC
EXTENDS TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SAT
AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MONRING. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH FRI WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLAND FROM THE W. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
STARTING ON SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS THE W ATLC WITH W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N57W TO 27N56W INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE
TO THE E WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
25N BETWEEN 51W-58W. TO THE S IS A WEAKENING 1016 MB LOW NEAR
27N58W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N48W TO 26N52W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 23N61W TO OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N64W GIVING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH OVER THE
AZORES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE N PORTION OF
THE W ATLC DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH TODAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC EARLY SAT AND RACE E.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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