[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N W
OF 95W IN THE WAKE A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF. GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT/SAT MORNING N OF 29N
W OF 76W IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 6N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N27W 3N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S AND 120
NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20N-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W ATLC
GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE N
GULF NEAR 28N92W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 24N94W INTO
MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW E
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA ALONG 30N88W TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE JUST N OF PANAMA CITY. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING INTO THE FAR NW GULF GIVING THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-91W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 86W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING S OVER THE FAR W GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE THE GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE AND
INLAND OVER S ALABAMA/GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
EXTENDS FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN
FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE/W YUCATAN
PENINSULA BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF SAT AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA TO E CUBA THEN
OVER THE W ATLC. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA W OF 80W TO S NICARAGUA NEAR 11N. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT
MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM E CUBA TO N/CENTRAL
HONDURAS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SAT WITH APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
STARTING ON LATE SAT INTO SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA
THROUGH THE W ATLC GIVING THE AREA W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W TO 29N69W WHERE IT DISSIPATES
ALONG 29N73W TO 30N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45
NM SE OF THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT N OF
THE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N49W ALONG
25N54W TO 25N60W. AN INDUCED UPPER RIDGE TO THE E IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 45W AND THE TROUGH/50W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NE THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE E AND RETREAT NORTHWARD TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SAT
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE E REACHING FROM
BERMUDA TO E CUBA EARLY SUN BEFORE IT STALLS FROM 32N60W TO THE
TURKS AND CAICOS SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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