[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211717
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N35W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 23W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF. A WEAK 1018
MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N89W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS E OF THE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM 30N85W TO
27N86W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO ANY OF THESE
FEATURES...WHICH LEAVES THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. SLIGHT TO
GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE E AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
FAR EASTERN GULF. A LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SW TEXAS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NW GULF DRAGGING ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. SLIGHT TO GENTLE TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W-
79W WHERE A MODERATE BREEZE PREVAILS. BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE
ISLAND...WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS EXPECTED AS THE
TRADES CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO 32N77W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO NEAR 27N778W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 68W-75W. TO THE E...TWO
WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE FIRST IS
A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 26N60W. THE SECOND ONE IS A 1018 MB LOW NEAR
29N50W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 26N56W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
20N58W TO 17N59W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED. THE REMAINDER OF
THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1036 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AZORES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING
CONVECTION. THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 58W WILL ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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