[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 20W-32W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N85W TO 25N86W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO BE VOID OF PRECIPITATION. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA AT 30N93W TO CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS AT 27N97W. SHOWERS AND CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. VARIABLE 10 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH UPPER AIR MOISTURE IS OVER THE W
GULF W OF 90W AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT IN 6-
12 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E GULF TO DISSIPATE.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST TO DISSIPATE WHILE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE NW GULF AGAIN FROM SW LOUISIANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE S OF JAMAICA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 78W-80W...AND OVER
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BAND OF
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPEND FROM JAMAICA TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THU EVENING OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N76W TO THE N
BAHAMAS AT 25N79W VOID OF PRECIPITATION. A 1016 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-
30N BETWEEN 55W-60W. ANOTHER 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 47W-51W. A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 39N26W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 25N BETWEEN 12W-28W TO INCLUDE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 21N33W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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