[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N13W ALONG 7N17W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N33W 2N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N49W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 7N13W
TO 5N16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA ALONG
27N87W 25N86W TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER
FLORIDA. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL GULF NEAR
27N91W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY...POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WITHIN
45 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM JUST N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO TO THE
MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE E AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF ON THU THEN MOVE NE REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON FRI MORNING WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF GULF ON FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 72W-77W
AND FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 80W-84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NW COAST OF VENEZUELA ON SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE S PORTION OF HAITI
INDUCED BY THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS EXTENDING
FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO 29N78W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 33N78W ALONG 30N79W TO NEAR 27N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-31N
BETWEEN 74W-80W. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO BEYOND
33N76W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE E OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N61W. A WEAK 1016
MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS NEAR 25N59W DRIFTING WESTWARD. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N48W AND EXTENDS THROUGH A WEAK
1018 MB LOW NEAR 30N50W AND CONTINUES ALONG 27N49W TO 25N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
250 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 53W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
W TROPICAL ATLC APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDS FROM
20N58W TO 15N58W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TODAY AND WILL REACH FROM
30N72W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT AND FROM BERMUDA TO
CENTRAL CUBA ON THU. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE N ON FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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