[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 5N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 1N34W TO 1N48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE 2N-6N BETWEEN 46W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS OVER THE SE CONUS FROM THE
COAST OF MISSISSIPPI TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE W ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA
INTO THE GULF NEAR 22N84W TO 22N86W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO 25N89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER CUBA E OF 85W AND IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER
THE CENTRAL GULF S OF 27N BETWEEN 84W-96W LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS ALL
BUT THE FAR E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OFF THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR 28N95W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE W GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG 89W WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
COLOMBIA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC OVER WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
CUBA JUST N OF CAMAGUEY ALONG 22N82W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 22N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND IN THE MONA PASSAGE. DIFFLUNCE
ALOFT S OF PANAMA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PANAMA AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COAST IN THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 75W-84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR SKIES TONIGHT. STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEAK COLD FRONT OVER WEST AND
CENTRAL CUBA WILL DISSIPATE ON SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT.
THE CHANCE OF THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SAT...DECREASING SLIGHTLY ON SUN AND MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
32N61W AND CONTINUES ALONG 24N68W ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO
OVER CUBA JUST N OF CAMAGUEY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONT
N OF 26N AND WITHIN 150 NM SE OF REMAINDER OF THE FRONT E OF
69W. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THIS FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N70W
ALONG 27N75W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA
NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH
ABOUT 150 NM S OF THE EASTERN AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REINFORCED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS MERGED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC ON SAT INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC ON SUN. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC SUN THEN
EXTEND FROM 32N72W TO E CUBA ON SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC LATE MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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