[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND EXITS THE COAST
NEAR 07N12W TO 06N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO
02N26W TO 06N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N
BETWEEN 38W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN US EXTENDS INTO THE GULF
SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE
BASIN. IT WAS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N91W TO
23N89W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT CONNECTING TO A WEAK
1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N82W. THE COLD FRONT THEN CONTINUES
NE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE SW ATLANTIC. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. TO
THE N...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
EXTENDING FROM 26N87W TO 30N73W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM W AND CENTRAL US ACROSS THE NW GULF SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
GULF EXCEPT S OF 22N AND W OF 94W WHERE A FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW
IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
FRONTS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE
EASTERN US. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING NW CUBA FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE
HENCE INHIBITING CONVECTION. GENTLE TRADE WINDS EXTEND ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE A SLIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY
FLOW IS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE
WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AS DEPICTED BY THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER
RADAR. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO ENTER THE BASIN AND STALL. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE REMNANT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE ISLAND TONIGHT FROM THE NW ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING INTO
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N80W TO 30N73W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED
TO THIS BOUNDARY. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF INTO THE SW
ATLANTIC FROM 24N80W TO 27N70W TO A 1009 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR
36N59W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N70W TO 27N75W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
AND TROUGH MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 57W-67W. TO THE E...A 1036 MB
SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 36N27W AND DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net