[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W ALONG 4N13W TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N28W TO 1N40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 11W-
15W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS OVER THE SE CONUS FROM THE
BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE W ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA
INTO THE GULF NEAR 21N85W TO 22N86W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO 27N90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER CUBA E OF 83W AND IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER
THE CENTRAL GULF S OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-96W LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS ALL BUT THE FAR SE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OFF
THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N92W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST
AND MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC. A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC
EXTENDS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS CUBA OVER CAMAGUEY ALONG
21N82W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
N OF THE FRONT INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 17N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN THE MONA
PASSAGE AND 73W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
SOON STALL THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING
BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 73W. THE CHANCE OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TODAY...DECREASING SLIGHTLY ON SUN AND
MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 58W-75W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N58W AND CONTINUES ALONG 24N68W ACROSS
THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS/TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER
CAMAGUEY CUBA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
25N. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THIS FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N66W
ALONG 26N72W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO JUST W OF ANDROS
ISLAND NEAR 24N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH
JUST S OF THE EASTERN AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE SW ATLC N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUN. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC EARLY SUN AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net