[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 25N93W WITH COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
SW TO 19N95W ARE PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 22N TO 26N W OF
94W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE AFRICA COASTLINE N OF THE
GULF OF GUINEA AND THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 05N02W TO
02N07W TO 03N11W. FROM THERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 04N16W TO
02N28W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-03N BETWEEN 16W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NORTHERN TEXAS IS FORECAST TO REINFORCE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN. IT WAS ANALYZED
AS A COLD FRONT FROM 19N95W CONNECTING TO A 1018 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 25N93W. TO THE E OF THE LOW...THE BOUNDARY BECOMES
STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM 25N93W TO 27N90W TO 24N82W TO 25N80W.
A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF THESE
BOUNDARIES EXCEPT BETWEEN 22N-26N AND W OF 94W WHERE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.
A SLIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A
WEAKNESS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 33N85W
TO 27N89W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMING FROM THE EPAC ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT MID-LEVELS SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS N
OF 28N AND E OF 88W AFFECTING THE ADJACENT NE GULF WATERS AS
WELL AS NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO
DISSIPATE WHILE THE REINFORCED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PUERTO RICO COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES AS DEPICTED BY
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS
DOMINATING THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE SLIGHT TRADES ARE
DEPICTED W OF 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR WINDS TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES E AND AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ENTERS THE SOUTHER
CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PUERTO RICO COASTAL
WATERS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS
THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS TROUGH TO
MOVE E WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM
CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTING DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 996 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 42N52W TO 30N66W TO 25N76W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 22N BETWEEN
51W-70W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 23N-26N BETWEEN
68W-70W. TO THE E...A BROAD 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
39N34W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS AN AREA OF STRONG SE
WINDS IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS HIGH FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 33W-
41W. OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC...AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM NW AFRICA ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N25W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG NW AFRICA ANALYZED FROM 26N15W TO 17N16W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC
ENHANCING CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E
ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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