[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151713
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE AFRICA COASTLINE N OF THE
GULF OF GUINEA AND THEN INTO THE GULF WATERS FROM 04N02E TO
02N10W. FROM THERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 03N17W TO 02N36W TO
THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 04N BETWEEN 10W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE REINFORCENT
TO A STALLED AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 26N88W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
25N94W...THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W.
COPIOUS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF
25N. SHALLOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN TO SUPPORT FOG ON
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. A RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN GULF WITH A WEAKNESS
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL-WESTERN GEORGIA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA SW TO 27N89W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS
REGION ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 83W AND
91W...INCLUDING MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. BUOYS AND
PLATFORMS OVER THE NW GULF ARE SHOWING NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS INCREASING AS THE LOW PRES CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SLIGHTLY DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TODAY ALONG THE MEXICAN
COAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND A
HIGH PRESURE CENTER MOVING FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE REINFORCED FRONT WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY GENTLE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
COASTAL WATERS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF THE EASTERN BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH ALOFT ALONG
WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO AND ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL WATERS FROM NICARAGUA
TO CENTRAL PANAMA. REMOTELY SENSED SCATTEROMETER DATA AND IN-
SITU BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N
BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. TRADES IN THIS REGION ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO A GENTLE BREEZE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
CONTINUING TO SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY-
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NW BASIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
COASTAL WATERS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE N-
NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 39N61W FROM WHICH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS AND ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N66W
SW TO 25N75W. A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT WIND PATTERN ALOFT ENHANCE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W. OVER
THE FAR EASTERN ATLC...A SHARP AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
19N38W. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
WESTERN AFRICA FROM 27N14W TO NORTHERN SENEGAL NEAR 15N16W. THE
REMAINDER ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AND STRONG
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1034 MB HIGHS N OF 30N. NO OTHER
AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ARE OBSERVED. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE FRONT ON THE SW N ATLC BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND ENTER THE
SW N ATLC WATERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net