[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE GALE IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 3N
THEN ALONG 3N3W 1N10W TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N22W 1N31W 2N41W TO 1N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 37W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW
ENGLAND TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W
ATLC. A REMNANT 1015 MB LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N88W
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 22N91W TO THE COAST OF S
MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW
ALONG 27N86W TO NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT E OF 88W. OVERCAST LOW TO MID
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF 90W EXCEPT WITHIN
90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS N OF CORPUS CHRISTI
WHERE SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING
IN W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS INLAND FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO TEXAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
FRI WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SE OF THE GULF BY LATE
FRI. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT AND
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH SUN. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NW GULF SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR
17N84W AND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES TO THE ABC ISLANDS. OTHERWISE A TRANQUIL WEATHER
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER E CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-18N
BETWEEN 65W-68W AND OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM THE GRENADINES
TO GUADELOUPE. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER FAIR SKIES TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE ALONG 20N
THROUGH SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COMBINED WITH THE
NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND W OF 70W. THESE SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NEARLY WESTERLY
AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE N GULF
COAST AND THE W ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N73W TO 31N76W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N71W OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N77W TO
OVER FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO THE WARM FRONT NEAR NAPLES.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N62W
ALONG 27N68W TO 23N74W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE
FRONT. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N44W
EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 20N53W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
OVER AFRICA INTO THE E ATLC OVER THE WESTERN SAHARA TO 21N27W.
THIS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST
OF AFRICA FROM 26N15W TO 19N16W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH
NEAR THE AZORES. THE EASTERN MOST FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. THE WESTERN COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE W ATLC AND WILL MERGE WITH THE LEADING
COLD FRONT. THIS MERGED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N60W TO 23N80W
FRI EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. A THIRD COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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