[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF GUINEA AND THEN
INTO THE ATLC TO 03N12W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 02N30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN
14W AND 24W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE ITCZ W
OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS INTO THE GULF. THE UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH INFLOW OF SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKIES AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 24N84W TO 23N93W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COASTAL SITES AND OFFSHORE PLATFORMS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE FOG AND HAZE IN THE N-NW GULF N OF 27N W OF
89W. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ASSOCIATED
WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO COASTAL WATERS PUSHES
THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE SE BASIN AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS LATER TODAY. WITH NO SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND VANISH TONIGHT.
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES N-
NE WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT INCREASING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FLOW IS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...DIMINISHING TO A GENTLE BREEZE BY THU MORNING AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC WEAKEN AND MOVES N-NE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORT
SCATTERED/ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS OVER TRINIDAD-TOBAGO AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT WILL PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVECTION. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL INTERACT
WITH DAYTIME SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW LIGHT AND FAST MOVING
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN EXPOSURES AS WELL. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY TONIGHT...ALLOWING MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SW N
ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM A 1016
MB LOW NEAR 32N70W TO 27N77W ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
24N84W. A DIFFLUENT WIND PATTERN ALOFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE
INFLOW FROM THE N-NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A TROUGH WITH
AXIS ALONG 30N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 31N38W WHICH WILL STALL DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO DRIFT N-NE. EXPECT SIMILAR
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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